Final Informative Essay

Aaron Batista English 201

A Few Drops Remaining

Right now how much would you be able to pay for a gallon of water? A hundred dollars? A thousand? What if you ended up needing much more than that? As we’ve seen in areas such as California, water is becoming more and more scarce as the years press on. Environmental disasters such as wildfires and droughts have affected millions of people and wildlife. It has become an even more likely possibility that obtaining even a glass of water becomes a luxury in the next 50 years. A report from PNAS.org (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences)states that by early as 2050 the world will face severe water shortages due to climate change and overpopulation as cities continue to grow.

Areas that rely on surface water such as rivers or lakes will suffer heavily as time goes on. Primarily those in Africa where poverty forces many to get water from their local rivers and streams in order to stay hydrated. An article by Maarten De Witt and Jacek Sankiewiscz dive deeper into how much harm will come by measuring the amount of rainfall and water density Africa has received each year in the past. By studying these results they are able to predict how much water they will receive in the coming future. By 2050 there will be a 10% drop in rainfall in Sub-Saharan Africa which will affect water levels within its many rivers and lakes which are essential to many of those in poverty. Even though this problem will affect the continent and the world as a whole, some areas will be affected more than others due to the amount of rainfall they get such as in the south.

Southern Africa is the driest part of the continent and towns such as Cape Town can see as much as half of their water supply disappear. Although some areas such as Somalia may see a relative increase in rainfall it will not make up for the enormous loss that will occur further south. For example Lake Chad is only 10% of its original size in 1963 which has already caused a significant water crisis for those who once used the lake as their main source of water. The amount of water that will be lost from drainage due to floods and the surrounding soil are not included as part of that assessment. The burden would be placed heavily upon cities as the citizens from the neighboring towns and villages come looking for water that has already dried up. As the population grows and the water supply shrinks not everyone is going to get what they need.

Our supply of fresh water has remained the same for thousands of years, providing more than enough water to our populations until around the 20th century. Don Hinrichsen and Henrylito Tacio have reported that from 1950-2000, freshwater levels fell 17,000 cubic meters per person to only 7,044 cubic meters. That is a 41% decrease in 50 years and the rate of loss is growing faster and faster every year. Currently water levels are at a third of what they were as recently as 1970. At the same time the population increased by 2 billion and while repopulation numbers are declining, they are still at a historically high rate. By 2025, water levels are expected to reach no more than 5,100 cubic meters per person. For reference a country is considered to be under “water stress” if the amount of water per person drops between 1,000-1,700 cubic meters. Countries fall into a state of water scarcity if it falls below 1,000 cubic meters which puts a strain on the environment, food production and the economy. Situations such as this has created a necessity for cheap, effective and fast water producing solutions.

As of now technologies are being developed to make use of all water either dirty or clean in an effort to curb an uncertain future.Such as in some parts of Africa, straws with built in filtration systems are being distributed to villages that don’t have access to clean water. Cities have attempted to place reflective coverings over their water supplies to prevent evaporation. The capabilities and scale for each country is going to differ as well as the rate of loss, which will mean some countries are going to face problems first. Large countries for instance which will have to take on even larger methods of water filtration depending on their population, such as the baby booming nation of India.

India is a country that is suffering from water scarcity and whose population is not expected to stabilize until the year 2050. Right around the time when most of the world is predicted to start running out of water. S. K. Gupta and R. D. Deshpande wrote about the different groundwater resources that India has to offer and actually talked about a method not often considered or heard of. It is the method of water recycling that may lessen the impact of water scarcity within the country if properly performed. Primarily, by using the water that can be safely extracted from waste and irrigation ditches. Using a combination of untapped resources of groundwater, filtered water used from irrigation ditches and recycled water the country may be able to meet its expected needs. This process has already been started in an attempt to solve the existing lack of water in the region and is expected to rise to meet the growing demand for water. It is expected that the country would also have to cut down on its agricultural production due to the fact it takes up so much water. With a projected population of about 1.6 billion the country is going to need as much water as it can possibly get. Looking towards the sea might be the solution that can help India in the end. As shown in the chart below our population levels continue to rise with our water withdrawal levels following close behind.

In the long run the world will need different methods to obtain, hold on to, or recycle water if it seeks to avoid a substantial crisis. Another method that is slowly becoming a promising candidate is the desalination of current larger water supplies. What that means is there is a process for turning saltwater into drinkable water. Noreddine Ghaffour,Thomas M. Missimer and Gary L. Amy discuss the possible solution to a growing problem as something that is completely feasible. For the most part a process like this has to not only work but also be cost effective if implemented worldwide. Currently desalination costs around $0.50/m^3 to $1.00/m^3 which can overtime become cheaper or more expensive depending on if it is subsidized or if the process is privatized. Over the decades the desalination process has become significantly cheaper, over the last two decades the amount of energy used for 1m^3 has decreased by %50-%64. Prices will continue to get even lower as technology improves causing applications to become more widespread. These lower prices are a necessity if it is going to be implemented across a country.

Cities especially will benefit greatly from this since they would have the most people in one location. There are currently 71 cities that do not have direct access to fresh water sources in their surrounding areas. Although 42 of them are located along a coast, the prime location to take advantage of a desalination technology. Countries that are not yet fully developed will benefit greatly especially. As the water sources that their citizens relied on for years dwindle they will need a secondary plan set up or else crisis will ensue. Of course the facilities have to be made near salt water sources to avoid the difficulties of water transfer between let’s say the ocean and a facility a hundred miles inland. Prices of installation will vary depending on the size, location and salinity of the water within the area. Overall although this may be the technology that can help avoid a worldwide crisis in the next 35 years.  

This isn’t a miracle problem solver however because this process will be drawing its water from a very independent ecosystem. Drawing out too much water can upset the balance of life within the oceans and may cause a different set of problems entirely. Removing excess amounts of water can change the direction in which it flows which may throw off migration patterns of certain fish that use the ocean’s currents. Fish themselves may get stuck in the pumps that will draw the water out of the sea. There is a multitude of things that can go wrong with using desalination but there is also another set of problems if we don’t.The severity of these problems all depends on how much of the ocean we use.

The population of the world is outgrowing the planet's ability to sustain it, causing a myriad of problems to both the environment, as well as ourselves. We are running out of water, there is no doubt about that. What needs to be done has be taken under careful consideration under a quickened timespan. The use of desalination may buy us more time to figure out a more permanent solution. Although it may end up causing a new set of problems unforeseen by the world before. There are risks on both sides of the table that can not be overlooked yet a solution must be found before we reach the tipping point, otherwise the decision will be made for us.

Citations

Mcdonald, R. (2011, February 22). Urban Growth, Climate Change, and Freshwater Availability. Retrieved February 20, 2018, from http://www.pnas.org/content/108/15/6312.full.pdf

De Witt, M. (2006, March 2). Changes in Surface Water Supply Across Africa with Predicted Climate Change. Retrieved February 20, 2018, from www.sciencemag.org

Gupta, S. K., & Deshpande, R. D. (2004, May 10). Water for India in 2050: First-order Assessment of Available Options. Retrieved February 20, 2018, from http://www.iisc.ernet.in/currsci/may102004/1216.pdf

Ghaffour, N., Missimer, T. M., & Amy, G. L. (2012, November 10). Technical Review and Evaluation of the Economics of Water Desalination: Current and Future Challenges for Better Water Supply Sustainability. Retrieved February 20, 2018, from http://books.genems.com/journals/eee/4-1/Electrical%20Estimation%20And%20Costing/1-s2.0-S0011916412005723-main.pdf

Hinrichsen, Don & Tacio,Henrylito. The Coming Freshwater Crisis is Already Here. Retrieved February 29th, 2018 from https://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/popwawa2.pdf